Traffic Safety in Low and Middle-Income Countries
Editor’s note: This article was published under our former name, Open Philanthropy. Some content may be outdated. You can see our latest writing here.
This is a writeup of a shallow investigation, a brief look at an area that we use to decide how to prioritize further research.
In a nutshell
- What is the problem? Traffic injuries are a major cause of morbidity and mortality around the world, estimated to be responsible for 1.3 million deaths per year, especially prevalent in low- and middle-income countries.
- What are possible interventions? There are numerous strategies for improving traffic safety, ranging from national or international advocacy for governments to institute better policies to smaller-scale efforts such as distributing helmets to motorcycle riders. We do not have a strong sense of which approaches are likely to be most effective or cost-effective.
- Who else is working on it? The major philanthropic funders of global traffic safety work appear to be Bloomberg Philanthropies ($25 million/year) and the FIA Foundation ($7million/year), but we are not aware of an overall estimate of funding aiming to support traffic safety work in low- and middle-income countries.
What is the problem?
Road traffic injuries are a large and growing cause of death and disability. The Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) project estimates that traffic injuries killed 1.3 million people worldwide in 2010, slightly more than malaria.[1]Lozano et al. 2012, Table 2. Road injuries are estimated to have killed 1,328,500 people in 2010, with a 95% uncertainty interval stretching from 1,050,900 to 1,747,000, while malaria was estimated to be responsible for 1,169,500 (95% UI: 916,500-1,526,900) deaths. By comparison, the World Health … Continue reading The World Health Organization projects that road traffic injuries will grow to be responsible for 1.9 million deaths in 2030, which would make it the 7th leading cause of death globally (up from 8th in the GBD 2010 estimate).[2]Projections of mortality and causes of death, 2015 and 2030, ‘Global summary projections’, ‘Top 20 Causes’ sheet. This is roughly 22.4 per 100,000 population, up from the GBD estimate of 19.5 in 2010 (though the GBD figure is age-adjusted, and we are not clear on the impact that has on the … Continue reading
Most road traffic deaths occur in middle-income countries, though traffic mortality rates are nearly as high in low-income countries.[3]“The overall global road traffic fatality rate is 18 per 100 000 population. However, middle-income countries have the highest annual road traffic fatality rates, at 20.1 per 100 000, while the rate in high-income countries is lowest, at 8.7 per 100 000 (see Figure 4). Eighty per cent of road … Continue reading Traffic mortality rates are considerably lower in high-income countries, which may be due in part to more widespread adoption of some of the policies described below. Road traffic deaths are distributed relatively widely across ages, with nearly 60% falling amongst 15-44 year olds.[4]Young adults aged between 15 and 44 years account for 59% of global road traffic deaths. More than three-quarters (77%) of all road traffic deaths occur among men, with this figure highest in the Western Pacific Region. Regional variations are evident but mostly follow the same pattern (see Figure … Continue reading
What are possible interventions?
The World Health Organization has identified five major risk factors that affect road traffic mortality:[5]“[The WHO’s Unintentional Injury Prevention Team] targets five major risk factors: drinking and driving, speed, seatbelts, motorcycle helmets, and child restraints. It assists with legislative reviews to determine how road safety laws and enforcement of these laws could be improved.” Notes … Continue reading
- seatbelts
- child restraints
- motorcycle helmets
- speed
- drinking and driving.
The WHO’s Unintentional Injury Prevention (UIP) Team works to address these risk factors by:
- Advising ministers of health on areas related to road safety.
- Assisting with legislative reviews to determine how road safety laws and enforcement of these laws could be improved.
- Developing social marketing campaigns to encourage good behaviors and discourage negatives ones.
- Evaluating and improving the quality of post-accident care, from pre-hospital care to acute care to rehabilitation.
- Publishing a global status report every few years on the state of road safety around the world.
The vast majority of the Unintentional Injury Prevention Team’s funding comes from outside the WHO, and additional philanthropic funding could be used to expand their efforts to new locations.[6]Notes from a conversation with Margie Peden, 8/13/13: “UIP receives relatively little of its funding from the UN. 90% of its funds come from external sources. It was originally funded by the FIA Foundation. Recently, UIP’s biggest donor has been Bloomberg Philanthropies, which has pledged $125 … Continue reading
Other potential uses of philanthropic funding include:[7]Notes from a conversation with T. Bella Dinh-Zarr, 8/2/13: “The FIA Foundation funds proven, cost-effective programs that prevent injuries and save lives, such as helmet distribution/education programs, police/enforcement programs, road infrastructure improvements, policy changes within … Continue reading
- helmet distribution and education
- police training and enforcement programs
- advocacy to governments to change road safety laws[8]“The FIA Foundation runs the Road Safety Scholars Program, which trains up-and-coming leaders in developing countries on road safety. Former Road Safety Scholars have risen to prominent leadership positions in their countries and are champions for safe roads in police departments, governments, … Continue reading
- road infrastructure improvements, including advocacy to major funders of infrastructure to better incorporate safety concerns[9]“The FIA Foundation runs the Road Safety Scholars Program, which trains up-and-coming leaders in developing countries on road safety. Former Road Safety Scholars have risen to prominent leadership positions in their countries and are champions for safe roads in police departments, governments, … Continue reading
- international advocacy to prioritize road safety more highly (e.g. the UN Decade of Action for Road Safety)[10]“After noticing a lack of political capacity to work on road safety issues, the FIA Foundation worked closely with the United Nations (UN) and WHO to make road safety a higher priority, resulting in the declaration of the UN Decade of Action for Road Safety 2011-2020. The Oman Mission to the UN, … Continue reading
- mass media campaigns (e.g. to encourage seatbelt or helmet use)[11]Leading the Worldwide Movement to Improve Road Safety, pg 10.
- monitoring and evaluation of road safety issues[12]Leading the Worldwide Movement to Improve Road Safety, pg 10.
We do not have a sense of which of these strategies is likely to be most effective or cost-effective.
Cost-effectiveness
Bloomberg Philanthropies commissioned a forward-looking projection for the potential impact of their $125-million, 5-year project to improve road safety in 10 countries.[13]Esperato, Bishai, and Hyder 2012 While acknowledging the limited evidence base to incorporate into their projections, the authors expect the Bloomberg Philanthropies program to save roughly 10,000 lives over five years.[14]“From the evidence base reviewed, only 13 studies met our selection criteria. Such a limited base presents uncertainties about the potential impact of the modeled interventions. We tried to account for these uncertainties by allowing effectiveness to vary ±20 percent for each intervention. … Continue reading This implies a cost-per-life saved that is considerably higher than our estimates for the most cost-effective global health interventions (such as bednets to prevent the spread of malaria), though for a very different population (i.e. most of the lives projected to be saved by Bloomberg’s road safety work are adults in middle-income countries, while most of the lives projected to be saved by bednets are children in low-income countries).[15]Esperato, Bishai, and Hyder 2012 (quoted above) project that the program will save roughly 10,000 lives from an investment of $125 million, implying a cost-per-life saved of about $12,500. We estimate a cost-per-life saved of around $2,500 for the Against Malaria … Continue reading Because of the normative and empirical uncertainty underlying this comparison, we do not regard it as dispositive.
Who else is working on this?
The UN has declared 2011-2020 to be the UN Decade of Action for Road Safety.[16]“After noticing a lack of political capacity to work on road safety issues, the FIA Foundation worked closely with the United Nations (UN) and WHO to make road safety a higher priority, resulting in the declaration of the UN Decade of Action for Road Safety 2011-2020.” Notes from a … Continue reading This has involved the creation of a Global Plan of Action to guide governments and national stakeholders in improving road safety in addition to regular monitoring of global progress towards road safety targets.[17]“In order to guide countries on taking concrete, national-level actions to achieve this goal, a Global Plan of Action was developed (5). This provides a practical tool to help governments and other national stakeholders develop national and local plans of action, while simultaneously providing a … Continue reading
The two largest philanthropic funders of road safety work appear to be Bloomberg Philanthropies and the FIA Foundation.
Bloomberg Philanthropies are currently supporting a $125-million, 5-year project to improve road safety in 10 countries.[18]Notes from a conversation with Margie Peden, 8/13/13: “Bloomberg Philanthropies is funding a consortium of partners, including UIP, to work on road safety in 10 countries. The program ran pilot projects in 2008-2009 in Mexico, Vietnam, and Cambodia. The pilot projects were a success, particularly … Continue reading Bloomberg Philanthropies works with a consortium of other groups, including:[19]Leading the Worldwide Movement to Improve Road Safety, pg 13.
- Association for Safe International Road Travel
- EMBARQ
- Global Road Safety Partnership
- Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
- World Bank Global Road Safety Facility
- World Health Organization
The FIA Foundation spends roughly $7 million/year on global road safety,[20]”The FIA (Fédération Internationale de l’Automobile) Foundation for the Automobile and Society is an international foundation based in London that was established in 2001. It donates about $7 million per year. Most of its grantmaking is for improving road safety in developing countries, … Continue reading working with many of the same groups as Bloomberg Philanthropies. In addition, they also support:[21]Notes from a conversation with T. Bella Dinh-Zarr, 8/2/13: “In addition to the International Road Assessment Program (iRAP) described in more detail below, the FIA Foundation supports low-cost infrastructure efforts through Amend (an NGO) to improve road safety, such as placing speed bumps and … Continue reading
- International Road Assessment Program (iRAP)
- Amend
- Asia Injury Prevention Foundation
According to T. Bella Dinh-Zarr of the FIA Foundation, there are a a number of other organizations—typically smaller and more locally focused—working to address road safety issues.[22]“Eastern Alliance for Safe Sustainable Transport (EASST) — Eastern European partnership of NGOs and government officials that facilitates cross-border projects on sustainable transport and road safety. Institute of Road Traffic Education (IRTE) — NGO formed by an interdisciplinary group to … Continue reading
Our understanding is that government aid agencies (such as USAID or the UK’s DFID) and development banks, such as the World Bank, support some work on road safety as well, though we do not have a strong sense of how much.[23]“The WHO, World Bank, and other development banks are major international institutions involved in road safety issues, but it is a very small, usually less influential, part of these institutions that work on road safety.” Notes from a conversation with T. Bella Dinh-Zarr, 8/2/13
We are not aware of any overall estimates of resources devoted to improving road safety in low- and middle-income countries.[24]“It is difficult to track total funding available for developing world road safety. The FIA Foundation and the Global Burden of Disease researchers have done some work on this.” Notes from a conversation with Margie Peden, 8/13/13
Questions for further investigation
Our research in this area has been relatively limited, and many important questions remain unanswered by our investigation.
Amongst other topics, further research on this cause might address:
- How strong is the evidence in favor of the road safety interventions supported by the WHO? How cost-effective have historical efforts to implement those interventions been?
- What has the track record of Bloomberg Philanthropies’ support for traffic safety issues been? Our understanding is that monitoring and evaluation data is being collected for their efforts, and some portion of it may be available publicly within a year.[25]“John Hopkins is conducting monitoring and evaluation of the Bloomberg Philanthropies program, which is currently 3.5 years into a 5-year timeline. The data will have metrics such as number of lives saved. Some data should be made public by the end of the year. UIP hopes that this data will be … Continue reading
- How should we weigh the differences in the populations typically aided by traffic safety improvements and other global health interventions?
Our process
We decided to look into road safety issues because we had heard that they were a large and growing cause of mortality globally and that they receive relatively little philanthropic funding. Our investigation mainly consisted of speaking with three individuals with knowledge of the field, including:
- Margie Peden, Coordinator, Unintentional Injury Prevention, World Health Organization
- T. Bella Dinh-Zarr, Director of Road Safety, FIA Foundation for the Automobile and Society
We also reviewed several documents that the individuals we spoke with shared with us and did some limited independent desk research.
Sources
| Esperato, Bishai, and Hyder 2012 | Source (archive) |
| Global Status Report on Road Safety 2013: Supporting a Decade of Action | Source (archive) |
| Leading the Worldwide Movement to Improve Road Safety | Source (archive) |
| Lozano et al. 2012 | Source (archive) |
| Notes from a conversation with Margie Peden, 8/13/13 | Source |
| Notes from a conversation with T. Bella Dinh-Zarr, 8/2/13 | Source |
| Projections of mortality and causes of death, 2015 and 2030 | Source (archive) |
Footnotes